Michael Myers, an analyst for the state’s employment department, explains market trends.

Analyst says growing population is a main factor in lack of available jobs.

With Oregon’s unemployment rate hitting 12.1 percent for March, now the second highest in the country behind Michigan’s 12.6 percent, many business owners are wondering why.

Michael Myers, Workforce analyst for the Oregon Employment Department (OED), was the featured speaker at the Florence Area Chamber Commerce monthly forum last Thursday, April 16, at Three Rivers Casino and Hotel. Myers gave a presentation on current market trends and what it means to Lane County and Florence.

According to Myers, Workforce analysts “provide customized, objective labor market information to businesses and other entities.” Wages, employment projections and unemployment statistics are some of the information the OED provides.

Now at 17 months and counting, the United States is currently enduring the longest recession since the Great Depression. Oregon, historically, has always been hit hard compared with the rest of the country. This recession has proved no different.

Myers said a number of factors contribute to Oregon’s high unemployment rate. Manufacturing has had major job losses over the past year. Lane County, particularly, feeds that hit.

The main factor, however, is a conundrum unique to Oregon. When experiencing major job losses, most states predictably see potential job seekers flee to other states. Not so with Oregon, which has actually seen an increase in people moving to the state, despite the recession.

Job losses plus a growing population equals high unemployment.

“That gap is one of the factors that makes our unemployment so high,” said Myers.

“Strong population growth, in good and bad economic times, has been a hallmark of Oregon for decades,” states the April edition of the OED’s Oregon Labor Trends newsletter.

Florence’s population has grown faster than the state’s, almost doubling in the past 20 years. According to the U.S. census, Florence’s population in 1990 was 5,171. In 2008 it was 9,410.

“Things are growing very fast here,” said Myers.

Because of this growth, Lane County, and Florence specifically, has higher unemployment rates than the state as a whole.

Lane County’s unemployment rate for March was 13.1 percent, the county’s highest, according to the OED, since 1983. Nationally, unemployment is at 8.5 percent.

Myers said that the OED, unfortunately, does not have up-to-date unemployment rates for Florence.

“It’s just too small of an area,” said Myers. Since manufacturing makes up only 2 percent of Florence jobs, those losses have not hurt us the way it has the rest of Lane County.

The housing market, however, has been reeling, said Myers, leading to a major slowdown in construction in the area.

The price depreciation of homes in California has had a significant impact on the Florence real estate market. Simply put: if potential retirees are not able to sell homes in California, they are not able to buy a home in Florence.

Tourism, a Florence staple, is also down, leading to significant losses in the leisure and hospitality industries.

Not all industries are seeing job losses, however. Myers said that educational and health services are still adding jobs.

“If you are working in the health care industry, chances are, you’re doing OK,” said Myers. With a majority of Florence’s population retirees, Myers speculates that health care jobs will continue to increase in Florence.

Asked about the future of green jobs, Myers said that the data in that area is difficult to analyze.

“It’s hard to define what a green job actually is,” said Myers.

According to Myers, currently, green technologies are not necessarily creating new jobs.

“A solar cell technician/installer has mainly the same skills as an electrician,” said Myers. The OED has sent out a green jobs survey and Myers said they will have more information in early fall.

Although Oregon’s top economists are predicting the recession to end by 2010, Myers admitted there was “no way to know for sure.”

“Even if it ended in 2010, it could be quite awhile before we’re back to 2007 employment numbers,” said Myers.

Myers encouraged people interested in the state and county’s unemployment and current employment rates as well as industry trends and wage data to go online at www.qualityinfo.org.