Study concludes Northwest quake looms large

CORVALLIS — A comprehensive analysis of the Cascadia Subduction Zone off the Pacific Northwest coast confirms that the region has had numerous earthquakes over the past 10,000 years, and suggests that the southern Oregon coast may be most vulnerable based on recurrence frequency.

Written by researchers at Oregon State University, and published online by the U.S. Geological Survey, the study concludes that there is a 40 percent chance of a major earthquake in the Coos Bay region during the next 50 years. And that earthquake could approach the intensity of the Tohoku quake that devastated Japan in March of 2011.

“The southern margin of Cascadia has a much higher recurrence level for major earthquakes than the northern end and, frankly, it is overdue for a rupture,” said Chris Goldfinger, a professor in OSU’s College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, and lead author of the study. “That doesn’t mean that an earthquake couldn’t strike first along the northern half, from Newport, to Vancouver Island, Wash.



For the complete article see the 08-08-2012 issue.

Click here to purchase an electronic version of the 08-08-2012 paper.

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